Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author who gave the world "The Black Swan," has a message for anyone hoping the U.S. debt problem is a partisan talking point: it isn't. On Sunday, Taleb said the country is caught in a debt spiral that is unavoidable, and he pinned the blame squarely on President Donald Trump, framing it as a matter of fiscal incompetence rather than politics.

Debt Problem Cuts Across Party Lines

Writing on X, Taleb said Trump has added 42% to the total national debt and roughly 2% to borrowing costs. He also brushed aside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to downplay the problem.

“Trump is behind a debt spiral,” the author of 'The Black Swan' said, adding that “the debt spiral is unavoidable.”

He made clear the issue wasn't about being Republican, conservative, or nationalist. It was, in his words, “just fiscal incompetence.”

Taleb was responding to SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who said during an interview on 'On The Don Lemon Show' last week that a 6% rate on $40 trillion in debt would mean $2.4 trillion in annual interest payments, more than total Social Security disbursements.

Debt, Deficits and Treasury Yields Keep Climbing

The numbers behind the argument are hard to ignore. The national debt stands at $40.36 trillion, and the federal government ran a deficit of about $2 trillion in fiscal 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Economist Peter Schiff warned that Trump's proposed $5,000 payments to adults would become the third-largest federal expenditure as interest on the debt surges to the top.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 5.24%, down from this month's high of 5.36%. The 30-year yield fell to 5.60%, and remains near its highest levels in more than two decades.

Bessent Says US Can Grow Out of Debt

Bessent isn't buying the doom. Last month, he said that with 3% economic growth, “we grow our way out of this,” and in August, he told CNBC there was “nothing magic about the $40 trillion number.”

Price Action: The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed 0.06% lower on Friday at $89.40 and fell 0.02% in extended trading. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed 0.14% higher at $77.98 and fell 0.02% in after hours.

Market data rankings indicate the 7-10 year bond ETF has a Momentum score in the 28th percentile, with a negative price trend across the short, medium, and long term.