Michael Burry is at it again, and this time he is not being subtle about where he thinks the trouble is hiding.

In a Sunday Substack post, the hedge fund manager said almost all of his short exposure now consists of put options on two instruments: the Nasdaq-100 Index and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

His Nasdaq-100 puts expire in April 2027, while his SMH puts expire in June 2027. Both positions are roughly 20% out of the money, according to his post.

Burry said he believes the market is within zero to nine months of a significant top, arguing that the final stages of the bull market could become volatile as major indexes reach new highs.

SMH Is the Heart of Burry's Thesis

Nvidia Corp (NVDA) accounts for 19.6% of SMH, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) at 9.3% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) at 5.6%. Together, the three stocks represent 34.5% of the portfolio. Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Micron Technology, Inc (MU), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) and Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) each account for around 5%.

That concentration makes SMH particularly sensitive to changes in semiconductor demand, AI infrastructure spending and investor expectations for future earnings.

A slowdown in hyperscaler capital expenditure or disappointment in chipmakers' growth forecasts could pressure the ETF. Conversely, sustained AI investment and strong earnings could undermine Burry's bearish position.

Four Other ETFs to Watch as Burry's Warning Unfolds

These ETFs offer different ways to assess semiconductor and broader technology exposure.

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Tracks the Nasdaq-100, making it a broader gauge of large-cap growth stocks that could face pressure if investors rotate away from expensive technology shares.

• iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Provides a comparison with SMH. SOXX returned 79% year to date, underscoring the scale of the semiconductor rally that Burry is challenging.

• ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ): Seeks daily returns that are the inverse of the Nasdaq-100's performance, offering a bearish alternative without directly purchasing put options. Its daily objective makes it unsuitable as a straightforward long-term substitute for Burry's trade.

• Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS): Offers a more aggressive alternative to Burry's bet. The ETF targets three times the inverse of its semiconductor benchmark's daily performance, amplifying gains during a sector downturn but magnifying losses if chip stocks rally. Unlike Burry's long-dated SMH put options, SOXS resets daily, making it primarily a short-term trading instrument rather than a direct replica of his strategy.

Whether Burry's market-top warning proves right remains to be seen, but his shift toward Nasdaq-100 and semiconductor puts puts the AI trade's biggest winners under scrutiny.